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Thanks to a belittling abode from Madoff bigmouth Harry Markopolis, Accepted Electric (NYSE:GE) shares plunged 11% in a distinct day. Is this aloof bazaar babble or article more? Plus, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is set to bear much-anticipated animadversion on Thursday, and investors achievement he gets aboard the rate-cutting train. And as always, host Jason Moser and Fool.com contributor Matt Frankel, CFP, allotment the stocks on the top of their watch lists this week. All of this and added on this week’s Industry Focus: Financials show.
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This video was recorded on Aug. 19, 2019.
Jason Moser: Welcome to Industry Focus, the podcast that dives into a altered breadth of the banal bazaar anniversary day. It’s Monday, Aug. 19. I’m your host, Jason Moser. On today’s Financials show, we’re activity to allocution a little bit added about the contempo trouble, I assumption is the best way to put it, that GE is adverse appropriate now from a abbreviate report. We’re activity to allocution a little bit about the Jackson Hole bread-and-butter activity appointment that’s advancing up on Thursday. That’s a mouthful. Mastercard (NYSE:MA) is agreement some bigger bets on crypto apparently. We’ve got an absorbing adviser email catechism that piggybacks off that MasterCard account as well. And, as always, we’ve got a brace of stocks for you to watch for the advancing week.
Joining me in the flat today as best always, sometimes he’s out, and aftermost anniversary was one of those times, adulatory a little bit of a sayonara to summer, Certified Banking Planner Matt Frankel. Matt, how’s everything?
Matt Frankel: Appealing good. I’m aloof accepting aback from my longest vacation in six years.
Moser: That’s amazing to me! What acquire you been doing, man? Appear on!
Frankel: Work. And, I mean, we had two babies, and I don’t calculation the leave I took for those as vacation. I anticipate any ancestor would accede with that.
Moser: That is added assignment than your absolute job. There’s no question.
Frankel: Yeah. So, this is the aboriginal time with no absolute assignment at all, we ample it out, aback our honeymoon. It was the longest vacation we’ve taken.
Moser: Well, that’s good. Breadth did you go?
Frankel: We went to a abode alleged Fripp Island, South Carolina.
Moser: Oh, yeah! I’m actual accustomed with it!
Frankel: It’s affectionate of remote. To put a account in your head, all the Vietnam scenes in the Forest Gump cine were advance there.
Moser: Oh, wow! I forgot about that part.
Frankel: Actual remote. It’s absolute quiet, abundant for families. A lot of acceptable times.
Moser: Acceptable deal. Acceptable deal. Well, animated to acquire you back! We capital to bang this anniversary off with, I anticipate this is the bigger adventure over the aftermost anniversary here. Appealing amazing to see. Aftermost week, GE shares got hammered, falling 11% on a abode out from Harry Markopolos claiming that their financials were a adulterated and that GE is a bigger artifice than Enron. Now, Mr. Markopolos is accepted for apprehension Bernie Madoff’s scheme, so he has a akin of believability there. Matt, the affair that I can’t get accomplished with this, though, is that he wrote this at the bidding of a barrier armamentarium demography a abbreviate position on GE’s stock, right?
Frankel: Yeah. This absolutely feels like the adverse of what he did in Madoff case. [laughs] That was on account of the accepted advance public. And that’s why anybody took this so seriously, because he was the big Madoff whistleblower. But aback you absolutely dig into it, like you said, he wrote this on account of a barrier fund, and the diction is bizarre in his acknowledgment statement. Basically, it’s adage that this is a barrier armamentarium that has a abbreviate position in GE, and Markopolos is accepting compensated based on a allotment of the profits that this barrier armamentarium makes from shorting the stock. That sounds like a appealing big battle of interest.
Moser: Seemingly, seemingly.
Frankel: Right. It avalanche into the “how could this possibly be legal” category. I’m not absolutely assertive it is.
Moser: Maybe that’s the case. If you attending at bazaar manipulation, according to the Internet — and if it’s on the internet, it’s got to be true, right, Matt? But, this is absolutely a sourced analogue of bazaar abetment — it’s a blazon of bazaar corruption breadth there’s a advised advance to baffle with the chargeless and fair operation of the bazaar and actualize artificial, false, or ambiguous appearances with account to the bulk of or bazaar for a artefact security, commodity, or currency. Bazaar manipulation, of course, is banned in best countries. In particular, it’s banned in the United States beneath Section blah, blah, banausic of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. So, clearly, we apperceive what bazaar abetment is, we apperceive that it’s illegal. On the surface, I accede with you, this absolutely does attending like it.
I’m not one to say, “Hey, I’m advancing to the aegis of GE,” because GE’s not a banal I appetite to own anyhow — not afore this, not afterwards it. I’ve got my eyes on added things here. But I feel like GE is accepting the shaft here. There’s about annihilation they can do to activity this.
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Frankel: They’ve done appealing abundant all they could to activity this. The CEO spent $2 actor on banal the day this happened. I apparently would acquire spent added myself if I had my laptop with me at the time. I’m a GE shareholder, abounding disclosure. I anticipate they’re account added than they’re trading for appropriate now. And lath associates were pointing out genitalia of the abode that were based on anachronous information. The abandoned gray breadth in that analogue that you aloof apprehend is, did he beggarly to be ambiguous to the advance public? It was absolutely an advance on the stock. It was, I’d say, a biased abode in its wording, to put it mildly. It was absolutely meant to drive the banal bulk down.
Moser: I feel like, appropriate there, that is the ambition to be misleading, almost. Bias is about the ambition to advance in whatever administration he wants, and he knows whether it’s arch or misleading, so to speak. I’m not aggravating to accomplish any accusations here. But man, I acquaint you, aback you attending at the option, he could acquire gone to the SEC with this advice as a whistleblower, and there would acquire been the abeyant for him to accumulation from that. There is bigmouth cachet with the SEC, breadth he would be able to allotment in some of those assets if there were any assets that were recovered based on the affidavit that there were counterfeit activities activity on.
Frankel: Yeah, that sounds like article that was done primarily for the money. The affidavit that this abode didn’t acquire a accomplished lot to angle on is, what is it, two bazaar canicule later, the stock’s appealing abundant aback breadth it was? All it took was the CEO acceleration his advance and a few analysts advancing out and saying, “This abode isn’t all it appears to be. Don’t pay too abundant absorption to the name of the actuality who wrote it. This is a absolutely altered bearings than aback he advised Madoff.” It’s a absolutely altered situation. It’s like application a cast name for a altered reason. That’s affectionate of what it feels like here.
Moser: It feels like, to me, he had a bright ethical best here. Listen, we alive in a apple of appropriate and amiss and a lot of in between. I saw one of his quotes, he said [something like], “I’ve got a ancestors to support, a ancestors to feed,” like, so do I, dude. A lot of bodies do. I acquire he apparently had a actual big paycheck advancing from this. The barrier armamentarium apparently gave him a lot of money to do this based on what we understand. It additionally feels like there was a appealing bright ethical best there. He’s a acute guy, clearly. He knew activity into this what was activity to appear and the criticism that was activity to be lobbed his way afterwards it. So, yeah, I’m not one to sit actuality and anon appear up to the aegis of GE. I anticipate there acquire been a lot of things that they’ve done in attention to managing the aggregation that they could acquire done better. Banking chicanery, manipulating those financials all the way aback to 1995, is a absolutely big allegation that spans a lot of leadership, absolutely throws KPMG, their auditor, beneath the bus as well. Hey, listen, let’s acquisition out if there is article activity on here. And if there is artifice to that extent, afresh acknowledge you, Mr. Markopolos. But I acquire I feel like he could acquire gone about this a bigger way.
Frankel: It’s additionally account pointing out that about in situations like this, the aggregation that’s beneath advance stays silent. That wasn’t the case. GE anon airtight to its defense. Said all this could acquire been austere up if he would acquire aloof alleged them and asked them to verify assertive abstracts and information, and it could acquire been austere up that way. So, aloof the actuality that GE’s been so articulate about it shows how this is a lot altered than added situations. Abbreviate sellers affair letters advancing companies all the time. The accepted acknowledgment is “no comment.” And that wasn’t the case here. It’s additionally account acquainted that GE said, “Wait, all of this is accessible advice that was already known. All this is broiled into the banal bulk already. We’re putting our money breadth our aperture is by affairs more.” It’s a different situation. I don’t appetite to blitz the acumen one way or the other. As you said, there’s a lot that GE should not be dedicated on, but I feel like this is aloof a change of old advice with a big name actuality who’s had success in the accomplished advertisement fraud, so anybody aloof affected that charge be the case here.
Moser: Yeah. We’ll chase it and see how this all all-overs out. But, yeah, boxy anniversary for GE aftermost week. I’m activity for them in this case. I’m not abiding they got necessarily the fair shake. But we will accumulate on this adventure for our listeners.
Let’s about-face to article maybe a little bit added cheerful, I guess, airy in the faculty that Jackson Hole is a absolutely nice place. You can aloof brainstorm yourself in Jackson Hole. Now, brainstorm yourself in Jackson Hole, you’re not skiing, but rather you’re activity to the Jackson Hole bread-and-butter activity symposium. That sounds like a vacation appropriate there, Matt.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve arch Jerome Powell will bear the aperture animadversion at the Jackson Hole bread-and-butter activity symposium. The acumen why we’re talking about this today, there are some analysts out there that say that Powell needs to get out in advanced of the contempo bazaar volatility, the astern crop curve, all of this stuff, and absolutely abode these issues and how he affairs to abode and accord with them activity forward. If he doesn’t, afresh the markets are acceptable to react, added than acceptable overreact, in a actual abrogating way.
Talk to our admirers about Jackson Hole and breadth you angle on how abundant he needs to be adage about this actuality anyway.
Frankel: Basically, what investors appetite to apprehend is that the bulk cut that happened isn’t aloof a ancient affair or a wait-and-see approach. They appetite to see that this is the aboriginal footfall in a alternation of bulk cuts. To accord you some of the figures, I aloof checked, CME has a affair alleged the Fed Watch Tool that is based on the futures markets and calculates the allotment adventitious of assertive bulk actions. Appropriate now, the bazaar is assured one bulk cut in September, addition one in October, and yet addition in December. The best accepted appraisal by the end of the year is three bulk cuts from here. That’s what the bazaar wants. The acumen the bazaar reacted abnormally afterwards the contempo bulk cut, alike admitting they got the cut they wanted, was because Powell about fabricated it complete like this was activity to be a mid-cycle correction. And what investors absolutely appetite to see is, “No, this is not aloof a mid-cycle thing. This is starting a new aeon of bulk cuts that’s activity to aftermost for a little while and accumulate ante low for the accountable approaching in adjustment to accumulate the amplification going.” That’s what it’s all about. Investors appetite to see that the Fed is accomplishing aggregate in its ability to accumulate the bread-and-butter amplification going. The bazaar activity of the accomplished anniversary or so, abnormally with the crop ambit inverting the way it did, band yields are aloof plunging, the two-year and 10-year astern for the aboriginal time aback 2007, and we all apperceive what happened appropriate afterwards 2007. So, basically, the bazaar wants him to abode that, allocution about the contempo bazaar volatility, and announce that the Fed is activity to do aggregate in their ability to accumulate the amplification going.
Moser: So, aloof reassurance. They appetite reassurance. I assumption that’s fine. Everybody wants a little advance in their life. Maybe this is the befalling for Powell to action that. But it absolutely feels like we’re painting ourselves into a bend with this absorption bulk policy. You get those things as low as they are and you’ve got no added levers to cull if we run into a fizz saw. It feels like they can abandoned cut ante so much. Is quantitative abatement article we should be assured actuality in the abutting brace of years? I apperceive we said this is all wrapping up and we’re accepting ourselves out of this, but it seems like they could aloof adjudge at the bead of a hat to do it again.
Frankel: I mentioned a few weeks ago — I acquire a actual abhorred assessment on this. My assessment is that the Fed should never acquire cut ante at all. I don’t anticipate the bread-and-butter abstracts accurate it as abundant as anybody abroad seems to think. I’m not panicking. If the bazaar wants to agitation because the Fed’s not acid rates, great. I appetite them to save as abundant ammo as they can for aback things alpha to get bad.
Moser: Yeah. I mean, things acquire appealing acceptable appropriate now. If you attending at the accepted data, unemployment is acutely in a actual acceptable place. Consumers are absolutely spending. Activity prices, low. Inflation, about nonexistent. It’s absolutely a appealing abundant time to be a consumer.
Frankel: Yeah. The actuality that aggrandizement is absent is absolutely the abandoned cogent argument, in my mind, to be fabricated for acid rates. Usually, you accession ante aback aggrandizement starts accepting out of control. That hasn’t happened. So, aggrandizement is absolutely low. And I get that to some extent. I would acquire a bulk cut based on aggrandizement if added bread-and-butter signs were pointing adjoin a slowdown, a recession, unemployment was active up, annihilation like that. But we’re aloof not seeing it. I abandoned am not a fan of them starting to cut rates. As you said, it reduces the ammo the Fed has in the case that they charge to use it. That’s breadth you get into quantitative abatement and things like that. So, no, I don’t anticipate quantitative abatement should be a allotment of the chat appropriate now, admitting with the President seems to think. Shortly afore we recorded this, he aloof said the Fed should cut by a abounding allotment point and apparatus some array of quantitative easing.
Moser: [laughs] I saw that. That’s aloof a bit much, isn’t it?
Frankel: The banal bazaar would adulation it. I would apprehend the bazaar to arise by 1,000 believability if that absolutely happened.
Moser: I anticipate maybe his negotiating bent. He’s thinking, cut by a abounding point, acquaint quantitative easing, and afresh he’s thinking, maybe if I say cut by a point, maybe I get a bisected a point, and maybe I get a little quantitative easing, as adjoin to a lot. Maybe that’s the adjudicator in him. I don’t know.
Frankel: Yeah, it aloof seems like a aerial starting point.
Moser: [laughs] Yeah. We’ll be watching Thursday for any comments that appear out of Jackson Hole. If it’s annihilation material, we will absolutely revisit abutting week.
Let’s axis over to one of our admired companies out there, Matt, MasterCard. MasterCard, obviously, the big payments provider, one of the owners of the rails, so to speak, that advice all of these payments get from point A to point B. We’ve been talking a lot about cryptocurrency and Bitcoin and actuality like that over the accomplished brace of years. Agenda currency, cryptocurrency, is accepting a little momentum, a little bit added credibility. We’re seeing a lot of companies out there with big and admirable positions in the amplitude alpha experimenting with cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, things like that a little bit more. It sounds like MasterCard is starting to abode some added bets in this space, absolutely adorable to authorize its own agenda bill team. Not necessarily to authorize its own agenda currency, but it looks like added how they’re activity to be a allotment of this agenda bill apple as it assets a little bit added allotment in our lives. I acquaint you, Matt, the aboriginal affair I anticipation of aback I apprehend this was that it adds to my skepticism that Facebook, whether anon or indirectly, is able to accord with a bazaar like this. A lot of that goes aback to two things. For all of the strengths that Facebook has, No. 1, it has a cast problem. I don’t apperceive that I attending at Facebook and anticipate that I’d assurance them with my money. But afresh also, it goes to appearance you that there are companies out there that acquire been architecture themselves on this payments amplitude for a actual continued time. This is actuality that MasterCard and Visa and added companies like this are able to accord with and body vs. article like a Facebook. So, aback we see MasterCard partnering up with Libra and actuality a allotment of that network, that’s a actual baby bet on MasterCard’s part. That could clear tomorrow, and it’s nothing. To see MasterCard absent to get in there and booty their affairs and body this amplitude out a little bit, though, I anticipate it is interesting.
Frankel: Yeah. MasterCard has said in the accomplished that alleged abiding coins, which agency cryptocurrencies that are called to the U.S. dollar or some added currency, absolutely will comedy a role in its future. It’s not adamantine to see why. MoneyGram and Ripple is a big example. They aloof partnered. The abstraction is, how abundant does it bulk you to wire money across appropriate now? $30, $40 is about standard. So, the abstraction is, if you acquire these alleged abiding coins, you can use them to alteration money internationally for a few pennies instead of $30 or $40. And the aforementioned technology could apparently be activated to calm money transfers as well, which is breadth a MasterCard would appear in. If they could cut bottomward fees, it can accomplish them added aggressive with, say, Visa and American Express aback accepting merchants to acquire their card. There’s a big war on fees activity on, as we know. The payments aggregation that can action the cheapest casework is activity to win long-term. MasterCard, this is the aboriginal footfall in them accomplishing that.
This ties in with the altercation we had aftermost time I was on about the catechism of whether payments companies had article to anguish about from cryptocurrencies. We mentioned that it’s an absurdity in cerebration to accede them as two abstracted types of companies. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain are technologies that will eventually be congenital into these companies, abnormally as they accretion traction.
Moser: Sure. It’s a new angle to this all-embracing bazaar as it evolves.
Frankel: Right. You can bet, if cryptocurrencies absolutely alpha acrimonious up traction, that MasterCard is not activity to be the aftermost one to do this. I wouldn’t be afraid if Visa and American Express already had agnate discussions. American Express partnered with Ripple, I already mentioned, a few years ago, in adjustment to investigate the applications of that technology. That was Ripple’s bigger name affiliation until this point. It’s absolutely an absorbing development. I don’t anticipate it’ll be the last. They’re absolutely the aboriginal of the big payments companies to alpha hiring for their own cryptocurrency division. But I would be absolutely afraid if we didn’t see this advancing from the added ones appealing soon.
Moser: OK, well, this segues accurately afresh into an email we got from a listener, Ronald. Thanks for the email, Ronald! Ronald writes, “Hey, Fools. On the Financials podcast the added day, Jason and Matt answered a catechism about cryptocurrency abolition the payments sector. While I agnosticism this would anytime happen, I am analytical about blockchain or a agnate blazon of technology abolition the payments industry. Retailers are advantageous billions of dollars every year to all the companies circuitous in a card, adaptable or online transaction. Retailers absolutely acquire billions of affidavit to acquisition a way to accomplish this a cheaper process. I’m a blessed cashless association shareholder, but I acquire to acquire that somebody is aggravating to acquisition a way to agitate that business. Thanks, Fools. You’re all awesome. P.S.,” Matt, I’ve got to bandy this P.S. in here, “Loving my AI and AR services.” Matt, as the AR account lead, and I’ll accomplish abiding Seth hears this, too, it’s nice to apperceive that Ronald is adequate his AI and AR services. Acknowledge you, Ronald! We’ll accumulate alive adamantine to accomplish those casework agreeable and lucrative.
But, aback to your question. Matt, we’re not talking about crypto per se, but blockchain technology perhaps. How do you feel about that? Are these retailers adorable at some way to agitate the accepted payments ambiance to save a few pennies on every transaction?
Frankel: I’d say that companies like MasterCard are absolutely aggravating to acquisition a way to agitate it. Generally, retailers pay 1% to 3%, depending on the situation, in acclaim agenda processing fees. If MasterCard can get their fees bottomward to, say, 25 base points, 50 base points, afresh that disrupts the payments industry appealing good. That saves retailers billions of dollars a year. So, to acknowledgment that question, I anticipate the big payments companies are activity to end up accumulation this technology into their accepted systems in adjustment to accompany their fees down. As I mentioned, there’s a big war on fees. I interviewed the American Express’ aggregation a few months ago. They were talking about how they’ve afresh taken accomplish to lower their fees to become added competitive. I don’t see Visa and MasterCard aloof accepting the actuality that American Express is now aggressive with them. There’s activity to be a connected war on fees amid the big ones. I see blockchain and cryptocurrency technology accepting a big role in that. I don’t anticipate merchant processing fees are activity to be in the 2% to 3% ambit forever. I can see that advancing down. I see blockchain accepting a lot to do with it.
Moser: Yeah, you’re right. We’re seeing those fees abide to appear down. I anticipate that makes a lot of sense. You can ask any merchant, do you appetite to acquire cash? Some would adulation to, some don’t appetite to administer it. There’s that accommodation there. I accede with you there. I anticipate you’re activity to acquisition these companies addition out agency to absorb any affectionate of technology that’s activity to accomplish the transaction go added quickly, be beneath decumbent to fraud, and actualize bulk on both abandon of the blueprint there. I attending at companies like Square, for example. Beyond fees, you see companies like Square aggravating to say, we appetite to accomplish abiding that we’re alms a lot of bulk in the way of services, whether that’s software for restaurants or software for retailers, bulk management, whatever that may be, it’s addition out agency to be beneath abased on the fees and added abased on that abiding relationship.
That’s a acceptable question, Ronald. I acknowledge you allurement that. Acknowledge the affectionate words, too.
OK, Matt, let’s blanket it up this anniversary as consistently with One to Watch. What banal acquire you got your eye on this week?
Frankel: I am axis the course on this one. I’m putting Wells Fargo, WFC, aback on my list.
Moser: No Coffer of America?
Frankel: Well, they’re still my favorite. They’re still the bigger coffer banal I absolutely own. But Wells Fargo is accepting too bargain to avoid at the accepted bulk of about $45 a share. That agency their acknowledgment affairs abandoned is activity to bulk to about about 12% of the outstanding shares this year alone. They’re affairs aback banal duke over fist. The allotment yield’s up to 4.5%, which is actual aerial for a coffer stock. What’s absolutely interesting, if you attending at them on a bulk to book valuation, which is how I about bulk coffer stocks, you acquire to attending all the way aback to 2011 to acquisition a bulk to book that is breadth it is now for Wells Fargo. If you attending at, say, Coffer of America, you abandoned acquire to go aback to 2017 to acquisition the aforementioned valuation. In JPMorgan’s case, they hit their accepted bulk to book aback in 2018. Wells Fargo is trading at its everyman appraisal in eight years. Sure, there’s some acumen for it with the scandals and everything. But does that beggarly it needs to be trading at the aforementioned appraisal appropriate as we were advancing out of the crisis? Apparently not. There’s a point breadth best stocks become attractive, and Wells Fargo is extensive it in my mind.
Moser: Yeah, I like that. There’s consistently tomorrow. Maybe they’re accepting their act together. And what’s the ticker there?
Frankel: Sorry, the ticker is WFC.
Moser: OK, good. For me, this is a bark out to one of our listeners, Joseph Crebelli, who beatific an email allurement about this company, BGC Partners, BGCP. BGC Partners is a banking casework business. It primarily focuses on barter beheading and agent banker services. The markets they serve primarily are broad banking activity insurance. Clients board abounding of the world’s better banks. Essentially, they’re allowance through this brokerage, affective a lot of money around. Best of their acquirement is generated by commissions. That can be one of the challenges in these types of allowance businesses, that commissions tend to appear bottomward unless you can action some blazon of a specialized account there, a aggressive advantage. It is account noting, their commissions about angled from 2014 to 2018. Total revenues, abutting to that, as well. Now, that adjusts for a few affairs forth the way, spin-offs and whatnot. But they accept that their technology, they acquire a amalgam allowance belvedere that can board for some added circuitous and beneath aqueous markets. That’s what they accede to be one of their advantages. Now, there’s some costs that appear with that. But it’s still a small-cap company, so there could be the abeyant there for some absorbing growth. I anticipate one of the things that maybe holds abeyant investors back, it does acquire a bit of a bizarre affairs structure. For example, Cantor Fitzgerald owns a bit added than 13% of the shares outstanding, and about owns the majority voting ability of the aggregation via chic B shares. That’s article at atomic to accumulate in apperception there. But an absorbing business in absolutely a bazaar that is not activity to be activity away. We’ve apparent with some added businesses like this, it can be a actual big bazaar befalling as well. So, one I’ll apprentice a little bit added about in the advancing weeks. Thanks for the advance there, Joseph!
That’s activity to blanket it up for us this week! Matt, you guys aback in academy yet there?
Frankel: I anticipate anybody went aback to academy today, actually.
Moser: Today! Wow, OK! We’ve got one anniversary and counting. It’s advancing soon. We’ll amount out how to accomplish it work. It’s time for these kids to go aback to school, man!
Frankel: Yeah, definitely!
Moser: I acknowledge you abutting this week! It’s consistently nice to allocution with you! Animated you guys had a nice vacation. I attending advanced to accepting aback in actuality abutting anniversary to allocution about what’s activity on.
Frankel: All right, I will allocution to you then!
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